Is Ukraine Freedom's Last Stand?
Ukraine is often seen to be standing at the front lines of a global struggle for freedom, but many factors will determine its ultimate fate.
Ukraine is often seen to be standing at the front lines of a global struggle for freedom. In short, it is believed that if Ukraine falls, many states thereafter will give in to autocracy. However, it is far from clear why Ukraine should be the place where democracy makes its last stand. Nor is it clear to many what the international order of states has to do with democracy in any given state. Yet, a brief excursion into the history of democracy highlights what is at stake.
When the United States was founded in 1776, democratic parliaments already existed, as in the United Kingdom and Belgium. Democratically run alliances were also present in the world, as in the case of the Iroquois Confederation and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. There were democratic tribes and villages, cities and provinces. In short, democracy existed at different levels of governance, so the United States could not be said to be made of whole cloth.
In fact, David Stasavage argues in his global history, The Decline and Rise of Democracy, that democracies have commonly existed side by side with authoritarian governments, and they have appeared in every major region of the world. Thus, if special conditions are required for the flourishing of democracy, they must be unique to specific societies— as opposed to modes of production or civilizations. Still, with its democratically run cities and counties and states, under the structure of a federally elected government, America was arguably both more democratic than any state before it and more territorially expansive than any previous democracy.
By the later half of the twentieth century, its democratic structures had been normalized and improved upon in several dozen states across the world; and by the first years of the twenty-first century, over half the world’s states could be said to be fully functioning democracies. Whether through emulation or conscious promotion, “the American century” saw the widespread adoption of democracy. Meanwhile, American decline has come coupled with its global eclipse. According to Freedom House, the number of “fully free” states has been declining for the past 16 years while even the most established democracies have seen a degeneration of their institutions.
The decline has resulted from the loss of legitimacy accompanying the global rise of inequality, but it has also resulted from the rise of authoritarian states like Russia and China in an increasingly multipolar world. As authoritarian states have become more powerful, they have exported their models of governance, and none more so than Russia, which according to the German Marshall Fund has illegally interfered in elections in well over a dozen states. Meanwhile, poorer states have used their authoritarianism as a model, and strongmen have swept elections in states across the world with it.
In the process, a range of incentives that previously led transitioning states to become democratic have eroded, and states that might have previously become democratic have turned to authoritarianism instead. This makes Ukraine something of an anomaly. Somehow, it has bucked the trend of rising authoritarianism, and right in the backyard of what is arguably the world’s most fascist state. Ukraine may not be a fully consolidated democracy, and it is legendary for its corruption.
Yet, Ukrainians have increasingly come to define themselves as a democratic nation, in contradistinction to Russia.
How is it that two states sharing what is commonly believed to be a civilizational heritage could develop such radically different forms of government? Accounts of the Revolution of Dignity in which hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians spent months protesting outdoors in the dead of winter in 2013-14, risking their lives to achieve their rights, remind us that freedom is a choice—and it is often achieved at great risk. Freedom is also a habit that is instilled in cultures over sometimes thousands of years.
Ukrainian historian Serhii Plokhy also reminds us in his epic history of Ukraine, The Gates of Europe, that the country has had numerous encounters with democracy over the centuries, first with Greek city states on its Black Sea coast, later in the Slavic tribes and Viking founders of Kyivan Rus. Yet, the greatest impression was probably made by the Cossacks, who settled the country’s southeast after escaping Russian serfdom. If Ukraine is asserting itself as a democracy, it is not just a choice, but also a cultural heritage. And we can expect other states to make the same choice, rooted in their own comparable histories.
Yet, democracy is not just the result of conscious choices made by citizens of democratic states, nor is it merely the result of deeply rooted democratic cultures. The world has become increasingly democratic over the course of the last two centuries, so something more than history and choice must be responsible for its rise. For some time, it appeared that democracy was the result of increases in wealth, and wealthier societies do tend to be more democratic. But Russia and China have both bucked the trend, and as the world gets richer, it is becoming increasingly authoritarian.
Democracy may be rooted in institutions, whose rules and norms lead citizens to renew their freedom with each election. But the assertion just pushes back the question. If democracies are sustained by institutions, where do the institutions come from? Of course, part of the answer lies in the laws and norms incentivizing their support. It also lies in the cultural habits of freedom, as we have seen. Further, institutions are the product of our ideas about the way the world should work, and these are closely tied to our historical narratives and ideologies.
Yet, part of the answer lies in the international order of states, which fosters democratization by protecting territorial integrity, supporting the rule of law, insisting on a respect for human rights, and pressuring states to act rationally. Democracy may not be an inevitable outcome of these pressures, but achieving and sustaining it is probably made easier by the current international order.
Yet, all of that could change if powerful states are allowed to wipe other nations off the map without consequence. It could change if authoritarian states like Russia and China become models for aspiring autocrats. It could change if the most powerful democratic states cease to defend and promote democracy abroad. And it could change if those of us who take the threat to democracy seriously simply throw in the towel.
Still, with some history of democracy in most of the world, and all the more so with each passing year, with the taste for freedom that is born of increasing wealth, with a complex international architecture supporting and sustaining democratic institutions, and no models or international organizations ready to take its place, it is hard to imagine the light of freedom simply being snuffed out. So, what is it that has galvanized the attention of the world on Ukraine, and why have so many of us come to see it as democracy’s last stand?
~ Theo Horesh, author of The Holocausts We All Deny: The Crisis Before the Fascist Inferno